Evaluation Detail

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ID

0cb63305

Date

2026-01-21 14:00:22

Value Before

$105360.11

Value After

$105360.11

Cash Before

$8867.12

Cash After

$6633.19

Model Used

claude-opus-4-20250514

LLM Analysis

Portfolio excellently positioned in AI infrastructure supply chain with diversified exposure across memory, testing, cooling, and interconnects. Market pullback creates opportunity to add to underperformers like MRVL while taking partial profits in top performer AEHR. Maintaining conservative 25% cash reserve given market volatility.

Recommendations

Symbol Action Shares Amount Confidence Reasoning
MRVL BUY 83.34 $0.00 85% Down 4.1% in today's selloff, providing attractive entry to add to position. Marvell supplies critic...
AEHR SELL 151.98 $0.00 75% Largest position by shares (607 shares) and best performer (+10.4%). Prudent to take some profits to...
MU HOLD 0.00 $0.00 90% Largest dollar position performing well (+7.2%). Memory shortage narrative intact per recent news. C...
RMBS HOLD 0.00 $0.00 85% Strong performer (+9.4%) providing high-speed interface IPs critical for AI chip connectivity. Well-...
VRT HOLD 0.00 $0.00 85% Data center cooling becoming increasingly critical per recent news about next-gen AI cooling needs. ...
ONTO HOLD 0.00 $0.00 80% Semiconductor inspection equipment essential for AI chip manufacturing. Solid gains (+6.9%) reflect ...
AMKR HOLD 0.00 $0.00 70% Despite -6.2% loss, cannot add due to wash sale warning. Advanced packaging increasingly important f...

Executed Trades

Symbol Action Shares Price Total Order ID
MRVL BUY 83.34 $79.80 $6650.34 7f5be98c
AEHR SELL 151.98 $29.06 $4416.41 0219dd80

Market Data Snapshot

Symbol Price at Evaluation
AEHR $29.06
MU $365.00
MRVL $79.80
ONTO $216.16
AMKR $49.05
RMBS $110.10
VRT $175.18

Debug Info

LLM Extended Thinking

Let me analyze this portfolio and the investment strategy:

## Investment Strategy
The user wants to invest in suppliers to AI/GPU needs, specifically:
- NOT power companies or cloud computing or Nvidia
- Looking for something needed for LLM use cases
- Interested in downstream/esoteric suppliers like memory or other components

## Current Portfolio Analysis
Looking at the holdings:
1. **ONTO** - Onto Innovation: Semiconductor metrology/inspection equipment - Good fit
2. **VRT** - Vertiv Holdings: Data center cooling and power management - Good fit
3. **RMBS** - Rambus: High-speed interface chips and security IPs - Good fit
4. **MU** - Micron: Memory chips (DRAM, NAND) - Perfect fit for strategy
5. **AMKR** - Amkor Technology: Semiconductor packaging/testing - Good fit
6. **MRVL** - Marvell: Data infrastructure semiconductor solutions - Good fit
7. **AEHR** - Aehr Test Systems: Semiconductor test equipment - Good fit

The portfolio is extremely well-aligned with the strategy - all holdings are AI/GPU supply chain players.

## Market Conditions
- Markets are down significantly today (S&P -2.06%, NASDAQ -2.39%)
- VIX is up 9.67% to 20.66, indicating increased volatility
- Fed expected to hold rates through March
- Recent news shows:
  - AI funding continues (OpenEvidence raising $250M)
  - Memory chip shortage continues (Cramer bullish on MU)
  - Cooling solutions becoming critical for AI data centers (mentioned in MU news)

## Position Analysis
**Winners:**
- AEHR: +10.4% (largest position by shares)
- RMBS: +9.4%
- MU: +7.2% (largest position by value)
- ONTO: +6.9%


- VRT: +5.5%

**Losers:**
- AMKR: -6.2% (wash sale warning!)
- MRVL: -4.1%

## Tax Considerations
- All positions are short-term (less than 1 year)
- Total unrealized gains: $5,675.13
- Total unrealized losses: $939.28
- **AMKR has wash sale warning** - cannot add to this position

## Cash Deployment
- Cash available: $8,867.12
- Portfolio value: $105,360.11
- Cash is 8.4% of portfolio - reasonable buffer

## Trade Recommendations

The pullback presents a chance to add to MRVL at a discount since it's down 4.1% and fits the AI infrastructure thesis around data center switching and processing. I should avoid AMKR due to the wash sale restriction, but can explore new positions in complementary areas like memory controllers, advanced packaging, thermal management, or high-bandwidth interconnects. The winners are performing well and aligned with strategy, though AEHR might warrant trimming given it's the largest position by share count and already up 10.4%.

For cash deployment, I'd aim to put 70-80% to work given the market conditions and available opportunities.