Evaluation Detail

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ID

2842d77c

Date

2026-01-16 14:00:13

Value Before

$99876.69

Value After

$99876.69

Cash Before

$4164.75

Cash After

$2384.33

Model Used

claude-opus-4-20250514

LLM Analysis

Portfolio is well-positioned in AI infrastructure plays. Recommend taking partial profits in ONTO after strong run-up and redeploying into MU following insider buying signal. Maintain diversified exposure across memory, packaging, testing, and infrastructure segments while improving cash position.

Recommendations

Symbol Action Shares Amount Confidence Reasoning
ONTO SELL 7.12 $0.00 85% ONTO surged 20% this week and is up 7.7% from cost basis. Trimming 30% locks in profits and raises c...
MU BUY 9.90 $0.00 90% Director's $7.8M purchase signals strong insider confidence. Memory demand for AI applications (HBM3...
AEHR HOLD 0.00 $0.00 80% Large position performing adequately. Test equipment demand should grow with AI chip complexity, but...
AMKR HOLD 0.00 $0.00 75% Advanced packaging critical for AI chips but wash sale rules prevent adding. Current drawdown may re...
MRVL HOLD 0.00 $0.00 80% Data center interconnect solutions essential for AI clusters. Slight drawdown acceptable given stron...

Executed Trades

Symbol Action Shares Price Total Order ID
ONTO SELL 7.12 $217.85 $1551.38 b0aca1ee
MU BUY 9.90 $336.63 $3331.80 9b60990e

Market Data Snapshot

Symbol Price at Evaluation
AEHR $26.53
AMKR $49.20
RMBS $103.07
VRT $172.54
ONTO $217.85
MU $336.63
MRVL $80.38

Debug Info

LLM Extended Thinking

Let me analyze this portfolio and the investment strategy.

Investment Strategy: Invest in suppliers to AI/GPU needs, not power companies/cloud/nvidia, but more downstream/esoteric things needed for LLMs - like more memory or other components.

Current Portfolio:
- ONTO: Semiconductor equipment, wafer inspection
- RMBS: Rambus, memory interface chips and IP
- VRT: Vertiv, data center infrastructure/cooling
- MU: Micron, memory chips (DRAM, NAND)
- AMKR: Amkor, semiconductor packaging and test services
- MRVL: Marvell, data infrastructure semiconductor solutions
- AEHR: Aehr Test Systems, semiconductor test and burn-in equipment

This portfolio actually aligns very well with the strategy! These are all companies that support AI/GPU infrastructure:
- MU provides the memory (HBM for AI)
- RMBS provides memory interface technology
- AMKR provides advanced packaging (critical for HBM and chiplet designs)
- MRVL provides networking/interconnect solutions
- ONTO and AEHR provide testing/inspection equipment
- VRT provides cooling infrastructure for data centers

Market Assessment:
- Markets are slightly up today
- VIX is down significantly (-6.09%), indicating lower volatility
- Tech/NASDAQ up modestly

Recent News:
- MU has positive news about AI chips and a director buying $7.8M worth of stock
- ONTO has surged 20% in a week
- General market seems stable

Tax Considerations:
- AMKR has a wash sale warning
- All positions are short-term (no long-term gains)
- Small net realized gain for the year ($23.73)

Analysis:
1. Portfolio is well-aligned with strategy
2. MU director buying is a strong signal
3. ONTO may be overextended after 20% weekly gain
4. AMKR is down 5.9% but has wash sale issues


5. Cash position is minimal at just 4.2% of the portfolio, limiting flexibility for new opportunities or rebalancing.

Given the strong alignment with my thesis, I should hold most positions. ONTO's recent surge suggests taking some profits might be prudent. The insider buying at MU is compelling and worth considering adding to. AMKR needs careful handling due to wash sale constraints.