Evaluation Detail

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ID

7533b151

Date

2026-01-19 14:00:23

Value Before

$104876.91

Value After

$104876.91

Cash Before

$2384.33

Cash After

$8867.12

Model Used

claude-opus-4-20250514

LLM Analysis

Portfolio is well-positioned for the AI memory bottleneck theme, with strong exposure through MU and RMBS. Recent news validates this thesis with unprecedented DRAM shortages. Recommend trimming less-aligned position (VRT) to raise cash while maintaining core AI infrastructure holdings. Limited cash prevents significant new positions, but current holdings capture the esoteric AI supply chain well, particularly in memory and semiconductor equipment.

Recommendations

Symbol Action Shares Amount Confidence Reasoning
VRT SELL 36.64 $0.00 75% While profitable (+6.6%), Vertiv is focused on general data center power/cooling rather than AI-spec...
MU HOLD 0.00 $0.00 95% Core holding perfectly aligned with strategy. News confirms AI-driven DRAM shortage extending beyond...
RMBS HOLD 0.00 $0.00 85% Memory interface IP is crucial for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) used in AI accelerators. Well-positio...
AEHR HOLD 0.00 $0.00 80% Semiconductor test and burn-in equipment essential for AI chip reliability. Strong performance (+9.5...
AMKR HOLD 0.00 $0.00 70% Despite -8.2% loss, advanced packaging is critical for AI chips (chiplets, HBM stacking). Selling wo...

Executed Trades

Symbol Action Shares Price Total Order ID
VRT SELL 36.64 $176.93 $6482.80 9cbefda0

Market Data Snapshot

Symbol Price at Evaluation
MU $362.75
ONTO $220.26
MRVL $80.46
AEHR $28.81
AMKR $48.00
RMBS $107.99
VRT $176.93

Debug Info

LLM Extended Thinking

Let me analyze this portfolio that's focused on suppliers to AI/GPU needs, specifically looking for esoteric/downstream companies related to LLM use cases.

Current Portfolio Analysis:
- ONTO: Onto Innovation - semiconductor process control equipment
- RMBS: Rambus - memory interface technology and IP
- VRT: Vertiv Holdings - data center infrastructure (power/cooling)
- MU: Micron Technology - memory (DRAM, NAND)
- AMKR: Amkor Technology - semiconductor packaging/testing
- MRVL: Marvell Technology - data infrastructure semiconductor solutions
- AEHR: Aehr Test Systems - semiconductor test & burn-in equipment

These align well with the AI infrastructure strategy. The news about MU is particularly interesting - they're buying a fab for $1.8B to boost DRAM capacity due to AI demand, and they've flagged an "unprecedented memory shortage" that will stretch beyond 2026.

Key observations:
1. Memory is indeed a major bottleneck for LLMs - the news confirms this with MU's shortage warnings
2. The portfolio is well-positioned in memory (MU, RMBS) and semiconductor equipment/testing
3. VRT might not align perfectly with the strategy (it's more power/cooling infrastructure)
4. AMKR is down 8.2% - need to consider wash sale rules since it's been sold recently

Market conditions:
- VIX spiked 19.51% indicating increased volatility
- Major indices slightly down
- Trump tariff concerns affecting sentiment

Strategy alignment:
The portfolio is actually quite well-aligned with finding esoteric AI infrastructure plays. Memory (MU, RMBS) is crucial for LLMs, and semiconductor testing/packaging (AEHR, AMKR, ONTO) is essential for AI chip production.

Cash deployment:
With only $2,384.33 in cash (2.3% of portfolio), there's limited room for new positions. I'll recommend being conservative with 0.8 deployment.


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MU should remain a core holding given the bullish fab acquisition and confirmed memory shortage extending into 2026. VRT's general data center focus doesn't fit the AI-specific thesis as tightly, so trimming 50% of that position makes sense to free up capital for more targeted opportunities. RMBS and ONTO are essential to the strategy—memory interfaces and process control are both critical bottlenecks in AI chip production. AEHR's strong performance reflects the demand for test systems in this space, so maintaining that position is warranted. MRVL should stay despite the current loss, as data infrastructure semiconductors remain foundational to the thesis.

AMKR's packaging and testing capabilities are vital for AI chips, and the wash sale implications make selling inadvisable. With limited dry powder even after the VRT reduction, I should focus new capital on memory-specific plays and advanced packaging companies that directly address AI infrastructure constraints rather than spreading across too many positions.